Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes in Climate Change Scenarios

Relationship between ocean mean temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

M. M. Ali,* P. V. Nagamani,1 N. Sharma,1 R. T. Venu Gopal,2 M. Rajeevan,3 G. J. Goni4 and Mark A. Bourassa5 1Department of Space, National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, India 2Ministry of Earth Sciences, Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India 3Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India 4Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic...

Statistical Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Enduring Challenge

Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Advancing Indian Monsoon Rainfall Predictions

Despite great strides made in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon is woefully poor. Our analysis of the reasons for failure exposes a flaw in the popular design of dynamical prediction systems. The approach of driving atmospheric models with a projected ocean surface temperature presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence so...

Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change?

[1] The stability of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated by means of a box model of the tropical atmosphere. At the heart of this model is the moistureadvection feedback which allows for the existence of two stable regimes: besides the ‘‘wet’’ summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by low precipitation. The model is employed for the identification of changes in the q...